Regardless of whether Sony and Microsoft push technology in the next generation, I think Nintendo has a solid opportunity to "win" the generation ...
If I were to estimate what the level of interest is in the Wii U I would say, with all else being equal, it would be about 50% higher than what the 3DS had heading into its launch. While that can hardly be called amazing, I think it is a solid level of sales that will allow Nintendo to execute their strategy quite well.
I could be wrong but I suspect that the Wii U is designed to get users to evangelize their friends and families to buy the system and games through social gaming and gaming focused social networking. Unlike Sony and Microsoft who are focused on making competitive online gaming experience that allow you to find strangers to play with, Nintendo seems to be focused on producing a social experience for people to interact with people they know in real life.
This strategy is not that strong on day 1 because no one owns the system to peer-pressure you into buying the system, but with strong enough sales the userbase will grow and people will be more interested in buying the system due to personal experiences with it and desire for social interaction.
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