predictions for 2008

[Stever89]

I'm bringing this thread back so some people can eat their words. I'll quote/summarize some of the more interesting posts, to show how this thread has gone.

damkira says: Mario and Sonic at the Olympics will be one of the largest sellers next year in all territories.

Too true. 

kber81 says: This will be the most successful GTA game so far. It will move hardware. Just wait.

It might. But between two consoles will split the overall increases each sees. Even if each sees increases close to Halo 3 increases, it will just barely beat the Wii. And I just don't see it increasing both consoles that much. 

CrazzyMan says: PS3: 24M and 360: 23,5M

That would mean the PS3 would have to double sales compared to last year, and yet the 360 will decrease compared to last year, even though it's getting some of the PS3 games like DMC4 and GTA4? 

Peter Potamus says: 360= 10 million (No Halo, No Forza , No PGR) GTA 4 will move more hardware on the 360, and Gears may have a strong impact if it can make it to 08. Lost Oddessy and Fable 2 will have a small impact in terms of hardware sold.

With Halo, the 360s biggest seller, it sold 8 million units last year. Without Halo, even with GTA4, I don't see it doing much better than that, especially with the increase PS3 competition.

Peter Potamus says: SS:BB= 4 million in 08

SSB:B sold 1 million in Japan first week (prem data), so I expect it to sell more than that in 2008.

rukusa says: Killzone 2 itself is a seller, the name itself is the seller. Reason being the huge amount of controversy it has gathered. Meaning it has alot of attention from gamers. That kind of controversy is priceless. Its like free advertising.

Manhunt 2 says hi. 

CrazzyMan says (in response to big Wii games this year): Because people will just lose interest in it, just like in Japan, Wii was outsold by PS3.   =)

When was the Wii outsold in Japan by the PS3? And why won't people lose interest in PS3 games that are sequals to PS2 game? I NEED ANSWERS!!!! =) 

carlos710 says to CrazzyMan: Wii Fit + Mario kart + Brawl are going to sell more than any 3 game combo released in 08 for the ps3.

Will he accept? Find out next time on CrazzyTalks!

theshoe23 says: 1. Exclusives are dead. [and some other stuff] 5. Price drops only go so far and cannot stop critical mass.

FFXIII goes multiplat! Finally! Just like pricecuts didn't save the GameCube, it probably won't save the PS3 and 360.

Astrodust says to theshoe23: You should nominate yourself in the next fanboy game. I think you will do quite well.

There's a fanboy game? Is that sort of like Risk? The last one standing wins?

dschumm says: Mario Galaxy will sell an additional 3.5 million copies, topping 7 million lifetime. Smash Bros. and MarioKart will both sell 6 million copies.

See above. Also, SMG is already reaching for 7 million. Your other points are good, maybe slightly high for PS3, slightly low for 360. 

TheSource makes his presence known and silences the crowd: You guys should about three weeks before going head first into any predictions...for two big reasons

1) I expect at least one of the big three to announce hardware shipments through December, with an updated shipment forecast.

2) The prospect of Wii catching Xbox 360 in the USA will largely be decided by sales in December, in which Wii outselling 360 by 500k would go along way toward Wii passing 360 in the summer, while Wii outselling 360 by 200k or less could keep it from surpassing 360 well into summer/fall, especially if GTAIV accompanies a 360 price cut.

WOW. HE WAS RIGHT!!1! 

Alasted says:

My predictions for 2008:

1.  Jack Thompson will be disbarred.

2.  Wii Fit's appearance on Oprah will fail to generate the expected hype for the game, and willl sell an abysmal 6.5 billion units.

3.  Reginald Fils-Aime will announce a slightly disappointing 3:1 attach rate of asses kicked to names taken.

4.  leo-j will accuse 1,423 VG Chartz members of hating the PS3 by January 31, 2008.  PS3 hate allegations LTD: 3,112.

5.  John Lucas will transcend corporeal being and evolve into pure energy.

7.  Alasted will learn how to proofread his posts.  Maybe.

EDIT (FOR THE HUMOR IMPAIRED):

1) We can only hope.

2) EPIC FAILURE. :)

3) HAHAHAHAHAHA

That post wins. 

PDF says: 1st of all this holiday season isnt over.  It will be well over 8M after this week.  It did not even have one full year in europe.  Also this year it will be cheaper and will have more games.  It will sale 10M for next year at the very least.

After the holiday, PS3 2007 sales rest at: 7.65 million. Hmm

Conversation between a few people:

Mummelmann said:

S-L-I-P said:
Wii : 36 Million
PS3 : 31 Million
Xbox 360: 27 Million

Here you go! (hands S-L-I-P a flamevest and shield)

You should have handed him a calculator and a maths book instead!

NOOO NOT MATH!!! 

PDF to Avinash: we will have to agree to dissagree. It looks like 10m is are agreement mark. I say no lower than 10m and you say no higher.

Agreement! Such happy days. 

CrazzyMan posts all the PS3 games that have a chance at coming out in 2008, and does it 5 times.

Leo-j states many things, but is banned so I can't read most of them. I think he was accusing people of hating the PS3.

And that's about it!

As for my predictions:

2008 Totals (in order of highest selling to lowest selling)
Wii: 22.63 million (assuming Nintendo does not raise production)
PS3: 11.39 million, a 50% increase over 2007
360: 8.83 million, no Halo 3, lowers sales, GTA4 raises sales, overall flat over 2007

Total Sales Year Ending 2008 (in order of highest selling to lowest selling)
Wii: 38.99 million
360: 24.95 million
PS3: 19.04 million