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Depending on "casuals" I'd say 40-50 mils, maybe even lower if it turns out that next-gen engines can't be downscaled so easily to Wii U (and seeing how all those developers are asking for LOT of memory in next-gen consoles (Epic, Square - Crytek even asked for 8GB as minimum), it seems that may be the case). To be honest, though I prefer Sony over Microsoft, my opinion is that NextBox is gonna kill in next generation, and I just don't see Nintendo repeating Wii success.