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Sony's 1st/2nd party exclusives have been fantastic this generation, and yet, Sony is still in 3rd place.

I think it will take more than great exclusives, PS4 must really distinguish itself from the competition in a much more fundimental way than PS3 did, otherwise, if 90% of it's games are shared, it'll have a hard time pulling ahead. Especially if it's last to launch next gen as expected.