Realistically, how inexpensive can you really expect the PS3 to be in 12 months? If Sony pushes hard they might be able to get it down to $300. By the end of the next holiday season over half of the people who bought a console in the previous generation will have bought a current generation console, and the consumers who are most willing to spend $200 or more on a console will already own one. Blu-Ray will still be far from mainstream, although the new $150 to $200 players will be helping it out.
Realistically, how inexpensive can you really expect the PS3 to be in 24 months? Sony pushes hard they might be able to get it down to $200. By the end of holiday 2009, 66% (or more) of the people who bought a console in the previous generation will have bought a current generation system, and the consumers that remain will mostly be budget gamers (in other words people who buy $100 systems). Blu-Ray will start to catch on with the mainstream because players will be in the $75 to $100 range.
In other words, as the Playstation 3 reduces its price it will come into the price range of people who have probably already bought into the generation; this means that its growth is dependant on it being bought in addition to another console. Blu-Ray will (likely) not help it that much because stand alone players will drop in price far faster than the PS3 will.
