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There is a huge difference between AAA games and system sellers.
AAA games are very nice indeed if you own that platform but don't have much effect on the overall scheme of things.
System sellers are what win the console war.

Now the best system sellers are the established brands, it is rare for a new IP to be a system seller (yes I know, Halo).
The PS3 appears at this stage to have a huge advantage over the 360 this year with proven system sellers.
However:
1) The jury is out on how good a lot of these games actually are.
2) Microsoft have something up their sleeve.
3) GTA IV exclusive content gives 360 a big advantage. This will be the biggest gaming event of the year.
4) It depends a lot on how good the marketing is. Sony marketing seems to be less than it once was. Microsoft marketing gets better and better.
5) Every year there are the suprise titles that come from nowhere and wow the market. 2008 will be no different.
6) We are still getting a lot of product delays in this generation. Most studios are still saying that PS3 is a bitch to develop for.



Incisive and erudite blog by game industry professional.

http://www.bruceongames.com/