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CGI-Quality said:

It's all speculation at best. No way to say it will / won't sell "x" amount for sure. I'm just saying that his guess is reasonable given the mentioned factors.


True, no one can say with absolute certainty what will happen. But we can surely tell which predictions are realistic or unrealistic. Only a handful of games have/will sell near 6m. It's extremely unlikely that TLoU will join those games with a lot less time to do so. And no confirmed multiplayer. Sure, it's possible it could sell to do so, but theproff's prediction is not a likely one. 

I personally think it'll do around 3.5 - 4.5m. a little higher than 5m if things go really higher.