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Why? Because Mario Kart appeals to a more diverse range of people.

Mario Kart will get girls.
Mario Kart will get the new expanded audience with the free wheel and easy controls
Mario Kart will get the casual because it's always hell popular with a broader audience.
Mario Kart will get all of the core because it's Mario Kart and it has online play

Smash Bros will get the core because it's Smash Bros and it has ZOMG11!1!!!!!timesONEMILLION content.
Smash Bros will get some of the casual because it's such a cool concept.
Smash Bros wont get girls, they don't like fighting much
Smash Bros wont get expanded audience because it's too complicated.

In the long run, Mario Kart will far outsell Smash Bros.

I'll put a bet on it :)