Economist: civilization may not survive "death spiral"

[SamuelRSmith]

richardhutnik said:

Dark_Lord_2008 said:

Economists are false prophets of doom. Economists are great at studying economic events after they have happened. Economist future forecasts based on past trends do not take into account Black Swan Effect and other unexpected events.

The easiest way to get rid of inextinguishable debts is to simply abandon one currency and switch to another currency. It is about time the Euro is ditched in favour of nations having their own currencies.  Germany is  forced to subsidise the weaker nations in the European Union.

I believe that corresponds with what Austrian economics says about economics, in that economics is poor for making predictions.  It has partly to due with there being a human element.  Economics is best suited at looking back at what had happened.

You can still make predictions with Austrian economics. Austrian economists will say, for example, that minimum wage laws will lead to greater unemployment.

Where Austrian ecnomics is different from other schools is in its methodology. If a study came out that said that minimum wage laws will reduce unemployment, non-Austrians may adapt that believe. With other schools, everything is true until proven false, like a science. With Austrians, they will say no, and will say that the study is flawed, or that it doesn't account for something else (basically, that it wasn't "all else equal").

Minimum wage will lead to unemployment. A triangle has 3 sides. If a study comes out that says that triangles can have 4 sides, there's something wrong with the study. If something comes out that says that minimum wage decreases unemployment, there's something wrong with the study.

There are other key differences. But this is perhaps the most profound.

But, back to your original point, many Austrians predicted the 2008 collapse. They're predicting a treasury collapse within the next couple of years. And they're predicting a China bust (though, no time on when).