Mnementh said:
I have a source for my numbers, do you have one for your claim? But even if Spain has 90% debt to GDP, that is not too far away from Germany. Also some other countries also not named usually as a problem have more: Belgium 98%, United Kingdoms 85.7%, USA 110% and Japan 241%. Yes the same Japan that is seen as a safe heaven in the financial crisis. The reason for problems is not absolute debt alone. |
Like I said... Spain's official Debt only counts government Debt. They've also taken on the stimulus funds and essentially their bank debt as well. Since they've been forced to agree to back those funds and pay back the stimulus funds, you'd have to officially add on the debt of the banks, which is roughly 100% to GDP.
http://www.gfmag.com/tools/global-database/economic-data/11855-total-debt-to-gdp.html#axzz25ee2Z7dO
Germany doesn't, because Germany's banks aren't failing.
Additionally Spain's banks were the only ones buying Spain's bonds.
Also, absolute debt would just mean the hard number of debt. Like 5 trillion or whatever, non related to GDP.
Really the issue isn't so much that debt isn't the issue. It's that Debt to GDP is a poor indicator of it.
I mean, GDP =
Consumptipon + Investment + Government Spending + (Net Exports.)
Really investment is the only GDP factor that particularly matters and government spending, but government spending actually is better when it goes down.
A better ratio would be Debt+Goverment Spelding /Investment.
Japan has the second largest debt market in the world they don't have any issues because the Japanese people LOVE to buy government bonds. Unlike Spain, who was only relying on banks to buy their bonds... the Japanese see huge domestic demand from the common people.
Domestic demand is important because you usally get a better deal... things getting real dicey when you have to go outside the country.
That said, Germany is in a special class, with the USA and a few other countries, in which either ratio isn't quite as relevent because they're still seen as relativly safe all considered.
It's a bit of an unflattering and macabre saying but... Rat's always do head for the highground of a sinking ship.