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I believe that Halo 4 will outsell Halo 3. It will get to at least 12million.
1) More people will buy it as compared to Halo Reach, only because there is a "4" after Halo.
2) There are more Xboxes in homes as compared to the date of Halo 3 being released.
3) People can't wait to see how 343 does compared to Bungie.
4) Microsoft is pulling the same moves with Halo 4 as they did with Halo 3. Mountain Dew Game Fuel, tons of commercials, and extreme Hyping up. Microsoft is best at advertising.
5) Analysts predict that CoD has hits peak and should only decline in sales. So what will all those CoD gamers get when no BF is being released? Halo.

There are tons of reasons why Halo 4 has the potential to outsell Halo 3.