I think the bare minimum would be 8Gb if one plans to go full retail. 4Gb fills really fast. I got my vita with a 4Gb card and Uncharted. After downloading every free app and game (I managed to score Motorstorm RC for free! 
), I was left with less than 500mb. Now if you plan to use that remaining 500mb for saves then that would work, but lets face it, we're bound to slap some music and a couple of videos/movies on our vita every now and then and having decent amount of space for them would be nice.
Anyway, one reason why the Vita's memory card are a bit pricy is because the volume produced by sony pales in comparison to the volume of micro sd cards produced. So less volume = more expensive as compared to massive volume = cheaper due to the fix manufacturing and production cost being distributed to more units.
But probably, the most obvious reason is that Sony is using the memory cards to earn a little extra cash.
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