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Parokki said:
The 360 has had $50 of price cuts.
The PS3 has had $200 of price cuts, and is just barely outselling the 360.

The PS3's biggest games started production waaaay before the console was out, and it's been losing exclusives faster than it's been gaining them. The one year head start in software production also hasn't gone anywhere.

Not exactly undeniable proof that the 360 is going to win, but I'd call it enough to say it has a good chance. I think we should all admit that both HD consoles still have a chance of ending up ahead of the other.

Past price cuts matter little. The ps3 has managed to outsell the 360 worldwide for the past few months despite the 40gb ps3 despite being $130 more expensive than the Arcade/Core 360, and despite the console having a much smaller game library. That says something. The 360 also had Halo 3 and Mass Effect to carry it through the holidays, versus only Uncharted for the ps3. What's going to happen this year when the ps3 is getting the big exclusives like MGS4? The ps3 will only gain ground on the 360 from here on out, barring a major exclusive upset in the form of something as big as GTA.

As for the exclusives, that argument is old and a bunch of BS. For every exclusive the ps3 has lost (DMC4, VF5, etc.), it has gained an exclusive via some other means. Haze, Heavy Rain, and Wardevil were all once multiplat, but are now ps3 exclusives (though Haze may be timed). In the end, things evened out, not to mention that the multiplat games I listed will still or have come out on the ps3, but the others will never come to the 360.

And the 360 has lost its share of exclusives as well, like Eternal Sonata.

Also, I'm not sure where you're getting this "one year head start in software production" thing from, as final ps3 devkits weren't sent out until August '06, 11 months after the X360's were sent to developers.