| theprof00 said: Just looked at that electoral map, why is it that without any states changing hands this election is swung 14 votes toward republicans? |
Nate Silver's map? Can you be more specific about this 14 point swing? The Now-cast vs. the Nov. 6th forecast?
He uses a pretty complex algorithmic model that weights the various pollsters differently, and calculates the likelihood of each state going for each candidate and the likely average of EVs they'll get come Nov. 6th. The Nov. 6th and current forecasts differ based on expected changes in the run up to the election, like the VP bump disappating, changes to the economy, and so on.
Nate Silver was one of the more accurate poll aggregators back in 2008 and 2010, predicting Obama's landslide and the Tea Party's landslide when most weren't expecting election results to be quite so drastic in either direction.
But only trust his numbers. His "gut feelings" can be wildly off the mark.
