| makingmusic476 said: Have you been keeping track of polls in swing states and the electoral map? The current situation would require Mitt Romney to win every swing state to get 270 EVs, but Obama's up in most. Prior to Wisconsin becoming a proper swing state with the Ryan pick (before it was consistently up 6+ points for Obama), Obama had to only win a single swing state to take the election. Based on current poll aggregates, I'd say this is the most likely electoral map, leaving Wisconsin and Florida as toss-ups until further data comes in: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=sAc Prior to the Ryan pick, I would've put Wisconsin for Obama and still left Florida up for grabs. But the point is, even if Romney takes both Wisconsin and Florida, he still only has 244 votes. So let's say these are the total states (real swing states, not "swing" states like Pennsylvania): Ohio http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/ Demographics are really fucking up the Republican path to 270. Ten years ago Pennsylvania was an actual swing state, and states like Virginia and North Carolina were solid red. Because of increasing urbanization both Virginia and North Carolina are now winnable by Democrats, and former swing states like Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico are becoming more and more blue due to the increase in Latino voters. New Mexico is no longer a swing state, and it's arguable the same has happened to Nevada (they don't get polled all that often). It won't be long before Colorado isn't a swing state and Arizona goes from red to purple. I'd imagine Texas will be pretty purple in the next 10-15 years as well, barring a major (and seemingly necessary) shift in Republican politics. |
This right here is why I hate the electoral college. If I vote for someone that doesn't win the state then my vote is worthless. If the swing states really only matter then voting in a non swing state is worthless. I will go out and waste my time this election just to cast my vote for Gary Johnson since I believe he would be the only one that would actually do shit differently. My vote will be worthless and I can already tell you who will win my state... Romney
PS. I live in Texas right now
