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It'll be interesting. Past GT installments have largely dominated other racers, most hitting or exceeding 10 million. MK64 hit 8.5, Double Dash didn't even top 4. Of course, the Cube and N64 never had the sort of momentum the Wii does, and the PS3 is facing stiffer competition than the PS1 and PS2 did. Part of it will depend on how well the WiiWheel works and how well MK's online works.

Push comes to shove, I think GT5 has a really die hard fanbase that will keep it's numbers from dropping too much below 8m, while I think MK's ceiling is a little higher than that. So unles everything breaks just right for MK, I'd say GT5 wins.