| osed125 said: Some of the points are interesting, but most of them are things we heard pretty much all the time http://www.uproxx.com/gammasquad/2012/08/5-reasons-the-playstation-toast/ I don’t enjoy writing articles like this. I own a PS3 and I actually think Sony did a lot right this console generation once they got past their disastrous launch. I was deeply skeptical of the PS3 when it first launched and then Sony turned around and made a console that was easy to fix and had a lot of streaming apps. On the other hand, sometimes you have to read the writing on the wall. The PS Vita has officially become an albatross around the company’s neck, with it and the PSP combined selling a whopping 1.4 million units worldwide last quarter. That alone was enough to drag the gaming unit to a $45 million loss this quarter. This is just the start: Here’s why. What do Namco Bandai, Capcom, Sega, and Konami all have in common? All of them showed profits this quarter, and none of those profits were due to selling console games. As I’ve mentioned elsewhere, there’s distinct financial pressure on Japanese publishers especially to abandon the console business to the West and just turn out mobile games. That pressure is just going to get more intense. If the Ouya or something like it takes off in Japan, that pressure will be overwhelming. And this is a serious problem not least because in Japan, what pushes Sony consoles are RPGs. But these are games that aren’t technically demanding: they could easily be mobile apps. And if that makes more money, they’ll defect to Android and iOS in droves. Physical Media Is Not Doing Well Part of the selling point of the PS3 is that it’s not just a game system, it’s a media streamer, a music player, and it plays back DVDs. In fact, many home theater nerds own a PS3 to play back movies and nothing else. Therein lies the problem: increasingly, people are dumping physical media altogether in favor of streaming. Sony was hoping for the Blu-Ray player in the PS3 to sell it like the DVD drive sold the PS2. That didn’t happen. But they have to be clinging to it for the PS4: They have no choice. So it could very well be an albatross. Many Users Will See No Reason To Ditch Their Consoles This isn’t just Sony’s problem: Microsoft’s got this one even worse, if that’s even possible. But the simple fact of the matter is for casual gamers, there’s no reason to buy a new console. Their current one streams their video and plays games like Fruit Ninja, which is all they really want, and it does it in 1080p. Why switch? The hardcore will buy it… but it wasn’t the hardcore buying nearly 100 million Wiis or making the Kinect a hit. Sony ironically is somewhat shielded from this by the relative failure of the Move, but it also means Sony is facing a smaller audience that still may not want to change consoles. The PlayStation 4 Will Be Sold At A Loss The plan for these consoles is and always has been to sell them at a loss. If your gaming unit has been losing money and your entire argument is you’ll make it up in software, your investors may not have the stomach for it, especially if the larger company is in trouble. Apple Well, Apple, Google, Linux, Vizio, OnLive, Steam, Origin, Ouya, but especially Apple. Leaving aside the iOS problem, here’s a useful analogy. If the video game industry is Batman, Apple has the potential to be Bane, except instead of breaking the industry’s back and leaving it at that, Apple would also squash the head and burn the corpse before finding the Batcave, chucking Alfred down it, and filling the whole thing with cement. Which then explodes. Laugh all you want: they’ve already done this. Twice. The music industry is broken to their will and currently American cell providers are breaking themselves to get at the iPhone… which is driving them out of business. Apple might actually own AT&T by the end of the decade. The only thing saving the gaming industry right now is that Apple is a closed system and doesn’t care about gaming. There is no iOS Ouya in the works. But the giant waking up is frankly only a matter of time. Apple can no more ignore the next wave of smart TVs and streaming boxes than Sony can. Streaming games is a key part of these boxes. And unlike Sony, Apple can rouse huge desire for its products and has way more money to throw at it. Microsoft is used to fighting Apple and you’ll notice they’re bracing for it with SmartGlass and the Surface. Sony, though, has no weapons and now that it owns Gaikai, making a dedicated gaming machine may be less compelling if you can just work your gaming into your TVs as a feature. Why pick a fight with a company that outgrosses you when you can just quit while you’re ahead and stop eating those quarterly losses? If you are too lazy to read, here's a video of someone analyzing the article http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBcG8_zjZW8&list=UU__Oy3QdB3d9_FHO_XG1PZg&index=4&feature=plcp |
I would also include that M$ is equally in trouble...Those of us who have given Windows 8 a go have not been kind to it. It's really not a good operating system when compared with Linux distros or even OSX. Even Gabe Newell has gone on record as saying Windows 8 is a train wreck and they are considering developing a Linux platform to hedge against the potential disaster.
I think once developers really get a taste of these open platforms (OUYA is a great example of what could be) I think the big players are going to fade away and the model is going to shift. Sony, Nintendo, and M$ are going to have to respond to this market shift with more open systems and overal more open policies to compete. Things like Sony not allowing 2D games on their consoles without extra bonus content and further more not working on American release dates (There's been quite a few Tales games that people have wanted to see) is not working in their favor.
While I'm changing my mind about tablets and phones being a viable place for high quality games, I think PC's with open OS's and consoles with the same structure will have a strong place in that market.
I do realize my post is completely speculative (except the Gabe Newell part) but it does seem to be crossing the line from possible to plausible with each passing year. The closed model is just loosing relevance and only restricting would be game designers from bringing fresh idea's to the table.
-- Nothing is nicer than seeing your PS3 on an HDTV through an HDMI cable for the first time.
