NJ5 said:
What evidence do you have for that? Let's take the existing PS2 userbase as a market segment (a big one as you know). Don't you think that some of the people in that group will upgrade to the Wii, and some other ones will upgrade to the PS3 or 360?
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This is a generalization (so obviously I don't mean all).
I think all the people who bought the PS2 at full price, in the first year, probably went the way of the PS3 or 360. The users that spent under $200 for it later in its life (and this is more then half of the PS2 sales) could go both ways. The numbers prove this out, as the ps3+360 numbers are much better then the ps2+xbox numbers for this point in there lives.
I also think the people who go from a PS2 to a Wii, would probably have not bought a 360 or PS3 until it's under $200. And when it gets to the $150 mark and each has over 1000 games, they are going to buy one even if they bought the Wii.
So in all above scenarios I laid out, the Wii and the PS3/360 don't compete of market share. Again, this is all assumption, but I think it's how it's going to play out.
