Parents will pick up a 3DS for their kids as its much cheaper and has the Marios and Pokemanz in 3D. It's as though Sony have been in a coma for 7 years and didn't take note of DS sales trends. I can't really imagine what can classify as a 'killer' title.
Popularity is the name of the game though and if Uncharted could do 500k then I imagine AC and CoD could do the same if not more. LBP and P4G will probably be those games with long legs and won't sell a lot initially. But I've already just mentioned 4 big exclusive titles in the next few months along with a slew of unmentioned niche exclusives for this year also. Shortage of games is far from the problem, they've permanently gimped Vita sales now due to the price and the 3DS' install base that resulted because of said price.
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