| Doktor85 said: 2nd -> 3rd 88% growth (much more games were released compared to 1st gen) 3rd -> 4th 33% growth (normal growth) 4th -> 5th 50% growth (entering 3d era) 5th -> 6th 27% growth (normal growth) Average growth 88+33+50+27=198 198/4= 50% Extrapolation 190*1,5=285mln (until the last 360/PS3/Wii is sold) If this generation didn't had a Wii-mote. The growth for the 7th generation would be minimal. The market would stagnate. I think the growth can be cut in half when looking at the last growth 27%. So this generation would only accomplish 14% growth if there wasn't a Wii-mote. The problem is how big is motion control? Is it bigger than 3D? Almost every genre went from 2d to 3d. The Wii isn't delivering the new experience in many different genres. On the other side Wii games are easier to play, while 3D games were more complex. 6th -> 7th (min 217mln) and max (???mln) What the future holds? PS3: It's still struggling for Break Even. They will accomplish (2nd place). Sony wants it as long as possible on the market. Wii: Well don't interrupt a winning formula. Nintendo won't take the first step into next generation. 360: It will likely and up in a 3rd place, although it's profitable Microsoft wants to benefit again with the first next gen console. They also have a vision: Our third Xbox will own them all. (Read it a few years ago, can't find article) |
I think that 88% is just too far out of proportion to give it equal weight (a VERY different era, and smaller bases often lead to exaggerated percentages). Even the 50% of the 5th gen is a tad high - it's "new" gamers were basically then-traditional gamers that were out of high school, so they were already "game friendly" and easy to tap. The Wii's growth is into a completely alien demographic, and should therefore expect much higher resistance. A growth of around 30%, to 250m, seems far more plausible (unless multiple console homes becomes a much bigger factor, which is possible).
On the future?
The Wii? It's doomed. A Wii2 will come out in 2011 at the latest, and Nintendo, not being stupid, will do all it can to push the Wii market to the successor (which will almost certainly be BC) so it's sales won't be cannibalized ala the PS2/PS3. I'm not sure that the Wii2 will make any more radical improvements, but it will certainly refine what works now.
Sony and MS have to be a bit worried right now - the Wii has completely upended prior beliefs about what a "next gen" console must be like. And if they think developers are complaining about high development costs now, what do they think will happen if the PS4 and XBox720 "improve" by another order of magnitude? Honestly I expect those consoles to focus less on improved horsepower than on added features. I don't expect either to push the price margins again (esp Sony), and they may not even go with multiple price points this time (has that really helped anyone?). And just as the Wii2 will incorporate high-def, the Sony and MS consoles will have to incorporate motion controls or something similar in their nextgen conoles.
