| Hamister said: Educated estimates?? This is nothing more than guesses made by analyst wannabes. Nothing more, folks. Predicting the future like this is stupid. There is no way to make an educated estimate of the video game market 10 years into the future. Not even 5 years. I'd say predictions beyond 12-18 months, is just as unpridictable as guessing the end of the world. Since Wii is aiming for a market we know nothing about (the casual market), I'd say all sale predictions are like target practice by a blind person. I do these predictions myself. And for each extra month included, I increase the margin of error. With predictions 12-18 months into the future, the margin of error has increased to a degree that it's just silly to make any kind of sale prediction. With that said, I agree with some of the conclusions made by thetonestarr. However, I refuse to even suggest any figures for potential life time sales. |
Last time I checked, estimates are usuallys guesses that are found by educationed analysis of current and past data. I do agree somewhat with the bolded statement, because we just can't know how big this "blue ocean" is. I'd say safe bets place the Wii doing as well, or slightly better than the PS2, and since production limits one to saying only about 20 million units a year, that would place it right with the PS2 until the ending of the world, which we all know is in 2012. ;) Sarcasm aside, a good educated estimate would led one to believe that the Wii would do at least what the PS2 ends up doing, and probably much more. Just how much is the question.
I do aprove of this thread. Very good look at the market.
Also, to everyone who says that the PS3 will sell in a few years as Blu-ray penetration increases, I won't deny many will pick up the PS3 as a blu-ray player, but the question is, how many? Once blu-ray players and HD formats reach "mass adoption" the blu-ray players will probably be cheaper than the PS3, so many who care nothing for gaming will buy a regular stand-alone player. When my parents go looking for DVD players, they go to the electronic section and then go look at the DVD/VCR area. They don't go looking at the gaming section to find a DVD player. That's why I think the whole "marketing the PS3 as a blu-ray player" is flawed. Not many of those that are into gaming would decide to buy the PS3 because it has a blu-ray player; they'll probably buy it because it has the games they want, and the blu-ray will be an "extra feature" just like the DVD in a PS2 was. Those that aren't into gaming probably won't look at PS3 as a blu-ray player because by the time the masses start getting into blu-ray/HD, stand-alones will be cheaper (like I said), and since they have no interest in gaming, the "extra feature of gaming" will be in a sense "lost" to them. And finally, those that choose a PS3 now simply because it's a cheap blu-ray may or may not be into gaming, and as such may or may not buy a lot of games.
Take a look at Japan last week for example. Really slow week across the board. Here's some numbers:
- Wii userbase (Japan): 5.11 million; Wii software last week: 213k
- Wii weekly sales: 81k; PS3 weekly sales: 32k
- PS3 userbase (Japan): 1.86 million; PS3 software last week: 38k
- Ratio of Wii to PS3 userbase: 2.74 Wii's for every PS3
- Ratio of Wii to PS3 weekly sales: 2.5 Wii's for every PS3 sold
- Ratio of Wii to PS3 software: 5.6 units of Wii software for every 1 unit of PS3 software
- No big releases for either, though PS3 had a new released called Juiced, while Wii didn't have any
Marketing the PS3 as a blu-ray player has is like a two edged sword. The up side - get people to switch to blu-ray. Down side - those people may not buy games, thus making software sales not as good, thus leading to fewer games being made, and then a tumbling down cycle occurs. Obviously Sony wants to win the format war, so loosing the console war probably isn't too big of a deal to them. And I think the reason they want the PS3 to last 10 years is so that when the PS4 comes out they can introduce a new format, though I think by then online distribution will be used by a good deal of people. I'm just pointing this out because in 2 or 3 years, when HD really starts getting to the masses, it'll be too late for the PS3, since it won't have the support now that it needs so that later down the line it can sell to those "upgrading" to HD. And since it's not like the Wii can't be played on a HDTV, and more than likely the Wii will have more games (casual and hardcore) by then, I doubt a lot of people will start buying PS3s then.
Edited to remove "cherry picking" (I forgot to include weekly ratio of sales for the consoles)
