| Garcian Smith said: This article is horribly misleading. It basically says, "this study left out this and this, so PC games MUST be doing better than people say!!" Which is, of course, a fallacy. First, the impact of downloadable games on software revene seems to always be grossly overstated by PC boosters. In 2006, the revenue from full downloadable games was a paltry 0.4% of global games revenue. (Source: http://www.developmag.com/interviews/101/Developments-next-top-models-Part-2 ) Even assuming a tremendously unbelievable growth rate in 2007 (say, 100%, with all factors remaining the same, which is highly unlikely), that still means only 0.8% of game revenue came from downloadable full games. Now, assuming that "14% of game sales" = "14% of game revenue," that puts the PC at a whole 14.8% when including that percentage. |
ok I'll bite this. Let's analyse and juxtapose the NPD 2007 with the "Playing for Keeps" report you mentioned. The breakdown of the report is at:
Retail - 72%
Mobile - 10%
Online item-selling and Incremental downloadable content - 7.3% (almost entirely on PC)
MMO online subscription - 6.7% (pretty much unexistant on consoles)
Casual PC games - 3.2%
Online Full-game Direct Download - 0.4%
Downloadable Console Casual games - 0.1%
(there seems to be missing 0.3%, but whatever)
in US, PC has 14% of the total of the total retail market, which accounts to 10.1% of total market (14% x 72), if the PFK report is right. If you add all related to PC:
10.1% Retail
7.3% Item-selling and DC
6.7% MMO subs.
3.2% Casual PC
0.4% Full-game Direct Download
The marketshare would then be: PC 27.7%, average console 12.4%, mobile 10%. Remove Mobile out of equation and it would be:
PC - 30.7%
Average Console - 13.7%
And that's in the US. If I had applied it to Europe or Asia, the difference would be even bigger.
I think it's a terrible report, they underestimated Content delivery services like Steam, and questioned it's validity. Funny thing, in the page 22 of the report they wrote "Valve's Steam currently has five and a half million registered users, but may have peaked". The report was released October 2007, yet:
May 23, 2007 - Steam reaches 13 million active accounts
The report failed miserably.
| Garcian Smith said: As for casual games... well, the study doesn't seem to mention whether or not they were included, but the article writer seems to think that they weren't for some odd reason. But, let's give him the benefit of the doubt for a moment, baseless as that assumption may be. From the same article, it appears that casual PC games brought in about 3.2% of global game revenue in 2006. Assuming the same astronomical, pie-in-the-sky growth rate of 100% for '07, with all factors remaining the same, that puts casual PC games at 6.4% of revenue. Add that to our above percentage, and we get 21.2% - barely over a fifth of game revenue. And, again, that's assuming an unrealistically high growth rate and that all of the article writer's baseless assumptions are true. |
Have you heard of Popcap Games? They sold 10 million copies of Bejeweled, mostly on PC. I remember Gabe Newell of Valve using that as an example that PC games download sales are healthy, on an interview. There was also an NPD interview that mentioned PC casual gaming, but I can't find it.
| Garcian Smith said: And, of course, casual games don't exactly help the PC garner big-name exclusives. Why, just consider the top 10 best-selling PC games of 2007: 1. World Of Warcraft: The Burning Crusade (Vivendi) - 2.25 million Take out anything with "Warcraft" or "Sim" in the name, and you're left with CoD4 (which had much higher sales on consoles), C&C3 (which had about equal sales on the 360), and Age of Empires 3 (which was released - what, 2-3 years ago?). People also overwhelmingly bought other big-name cross-platform titles (Bioshock, Orange Box) on consoles, as opposed to PCs. In addition, the PC's most touted big-name exclusives - The Witcher, Crysis, and so on - barely made 100k in sales, if that. Even if you count digital distribution, which, according to the numbers I worked out above, accounts for maybe 3-4% of PC game sales revenue. |
Again, stop basing your argument on US market, it's the weakest big PC market and console's strongest, jeeesh. US PC market is just 15% of the World's PC retail market.
Crysis sold 140k NPD (November + December) - 1 million Worldwide (over expectations)
The Witcher sold 40k NPD (first month)- 1 million Worldwide (over expectations)
See my point? By the way, NPD messed up the PC figures and they just released the real Top 10 PC games 2007, in US:
Top 10 PC Games of 2007 (Corrected)
1. World of Warcraft: The Burning Crusade – (Vivendi) – 2.25 million
2. World of Warcraft– (Vivendi) – 914K
3. The Sims 2 – (Electronic Arts) – 534K
4. The Sims 2 Seasons Expansion Pack – (Electronic Arts) – 433K
5. Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare – (Activision) – 383K
6. Command & Conquer 3: Tiberium Wars – (Electronic Arts) – 350K
7. MS Age of Empires III – (Microsoft) – 313K
8. Sim City 4 - (Electronic Arts) – 294K
9. MS Flight Simulator X - (Microsoft) - 280K
10.The Sims 2: Bon Voyage Expansion Pack – (Electronic Arts) – 272K
| Garcian Smith said: PC gaming is dying. Just look at '08. Aside from Starcraft 2, what else with a big name is being released? A whole lot of nothing. |
7 Big name exclusives:
-Starcraft 2
-Empire: Total War
-Spore
-Dragon Age
-Guild Wars 2
-World of Warcraft: Wrath of Lich King
-Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning
10 AAA Exclusives:
Starcraft 2
Empire: Total War
Spore
Demigod
Dragon Age
Guild Wars 2
World of Warcraft: Wrath of Lich King
Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning
Sam & Max: Season Two
Storm of War: Battle of Britain
And +150 exclusives.
