Sounds about right. A lot of PS3 / 360 seems to already have the engine / tech made and ready for next-gen, and just limited by their hardware. I mean look at Battlefield 3 / Skyrim on PC - they're hugely ahead of current gen consoles and are the developers really going to have to 'up' the PC version, or just effectively make games that look like the PC versions on high settings. I've no idea of the nuances but from a technical stand point I don't see a large rise.
However, cost's dont just go up cause the hardware in the box causes them too. There is a 'race to the top' type mindset with top-tier developement that every sequel must outdo the last, every game must be better then the rest and that involves spending more on making the game, marketing the game and ultimately makes them a bigger risk then ever. Much like Hollywood movies everyone wants to have the biggest budget as they think it secures them greater success.
I don't think we'll see prices go up either, for the short term I think the future is things like Call of Duty Elite, FIFA UT, BF3 premium etc. Services that make lots of money after release, and also make revenue streams more spread throughout the year.
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