I think FF, GT and MGS will all help push PS3 sales, but mostly in Japan where there are still a lot of people intending to purchase who haven't yet.
Outside Japan I think they will all drive modest rises in sales, with the biggest impact in Europe and the least in US.
What's more important is not the spike each will drive, but whether each time sales settle to a higher base rate, which is really what PS3 needs. I think it has a fair chance of seeing this as more and more people see reasons to invest in the console (BR format war win, better games library, strong media content support, etc.) and each new big title should leave an underlying rise in sales in its wake.
KZ2 and RFOM2 are the most likely to drive sales in US if they deliver (I'm sure RFOM 2 will, KZ2 I don't know) for obvious genre reasons.
If the online coop and MP is judged really strong RFOM 2 should draw in more US gamers who are happy to have 360/PS3 to make sure they cover all the bases for big FPS/MP games plus it can built on good impression of first game.
Assuming both RFOM 2 and KZ2 deliver equally well then together that's pretty attractive, coupled with a good BR player, for a lot of US players. Hell, if you consider the cost of external HD for 360 vs getting a PS3 and two killer FPS apps and a very good BR player the choice seems appealing.
GTA 4 I'm sure will also drive sales, mainly in Europe and to a lesser degree in US.
The wildcard for me is LBP. One thing killing PS3 IMO is that it has totally lost out on family sales to Wii so far. R&C aside there is very little (other than some small PSN games) to satisfy the family/casual demographic. Given the cornerstone of PS2's success was that it had something for everyone (GTAs, Silent Hills, etc along with Sly Coopers, Jak and Daxters and lots of sports, skiing, driving, you name it games.
But LBP could, if it really delivers, drive some serious sales in that arena. My kids are desperate to play it after seeing some gameplay videos. But will it hit the mark or fail to ignite? Or is Wii now this choice for this kind of game?
Right now the market seems to have settled into a Wii for family/casual games but has struggled with more harcore / mature titles (overall anyway IMO) with choice for hardcore / mature titles being split across 360 and PS3.
I think 360 has the hardest battle trying to extend beyond its image but the PS3 could, with the right games and marketing as it does have the right brand name and perception... although the longer titles like LBP take to arrive (and the more developers move from titles like Sly Cooper to more mature fare) the more momentum Wii is building as the choice for family / fun gaming.
BTW in none of this am I stating Wii is for kids only, merely that it is also cleaning up with a demographic previously covered by PS2 than Sony is letting slip right now - for example I plan to get a Wii for me and my kids (then watch as my wife slowly sucumbs to its charms) while originally I'd expected more fun stuff on PS3 to fill that need while allowing me to play the next Silent Hill, etc.
Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...
