Iran will be a Nuclear State by 2014.

[bouzane]

Badassbab said:

bouzane said:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/23/us-iran-usa-nuclear-idUSBRE82M0G020120323
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/mossad-cia-agree-iran-has-yet-to-decide-to-build-nuclear-weapon-1.419300
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/middle-east/120225/iran-us-spies-cia-nuclear-bomb-tehran-iaea-video

Iran is not building nuclear weapons and there is no sufficient reason to declare war on them. That being said, invading Iran would be disastrous. The Americans have been singling out and destroying Russian allies for years now, effectively playing the Great Game in place of Britain and doing entirely too good of a job at it. Russia has been backed into a corner and if they invade Iran I am certain that Russia will intervene. This would of course escalate into World War III. We are on the precipice of the Final War my friends, prepare for annihilation.

Russia won't intervene if Iran is attacked. The US has sent 4 aircraft carriers to the Persian Gulf. What has Russia sent? They even cancelled the sale of the S-300 SAMs under US/Israeli pressure. Russia and Iran are distant allies, neighbours even but there's no military pact between them. Russia is more concerned with it's near abroad, countries that were once part of the USSR. The US preoccupation with Iraq, Afghanistan and now Iran has allowed Russia to more confidently reassert it's authority in it's traditional 'sphere of influence'. Of course high oil and gas prices have helped it too. Attacking Iran won't unleash WW3, it will just be another really messy Middle Eastern war that will cost the US hundreds of billions and destabilise the region a lot more. Not to mention the untold number of deaths such a war would cause.

While your scenario is 100% plausible I have to ask one question. When does Russia say enough is enough? If not during an invasion of Iran then when do the Russians seize the opportunity to attack a weakened United States while also protecting their own interests? Alright, I guess that was technically two questions :P