superchunk said:
1) I was not referring to now but to late 2013 based on the very fast increase in mobile hardware technology. By the time PS4/neXtBox launch there will be phone/tablets that are close enough to them to run scaled down games. With a year to 18mos of their launch they will be matched by these same devices. Next year we'll see games that are equal in nearly all ways to vitaPs360 and those games will continue to launch after next-gen is fully out there. All it takes is a few Android/GoogleTV/iOS set-top boxes with dedicated controls to make 3rd parties throw games at them. The massive interest in this device proves to publishers there is interest. 2) Networks get better every day as does the compression technology OnLive and others use. There's a reason Sony just bought Gaikai. Exclusives have nothing to do with this topic. People will buy Ms/Sony/Nintendo for their exclusives, sure, but there are a very large number of people who don't care as much as only play COD or some other set of 3rd party games. In fact, I'd wager that they are a larger set of consumers. Especially the casuals. 3)This means the whole idea "but it haz no controllerz... " is pointless. (sorry I hear it all the time) So as these set-top boxes become more prelavent as Android and iOS matures, you'll see a lot of $99 or $199 boxes for TVs that will easily equal anything in this or next-gen PLUS all the smart OS features users want. So game centric devices like this will not be as important. |
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1. That's still false. Depite the rapid movement forward, I don't think you understand how much more powerful console /PC chips are. (There's a reason they're huge.) We've seen some impressive feats done on phones, but take note -- Mobile devices do not get the allocated resources that consoles/pc get. Thus they will not be able to compete, because they need to stay at a low power output. People like to make predictions about next gen phones and what they will support, but that's only to drive support. It just simply isn't close enough yet. Definitely not even into 2013, I also doubt 2014. Preidctions estimate power increase between years will continue to gain large numbers. However, mobile processors hold 32 KB l2 cache, and 1 MB l3. Even netbooks have far superior processors to that, and that's the very MINIMUM. Now ... If in a year a smart phone was allocated to be a "gaming device." It's far more feasable as extended resources wouldn't be necessary elsewhere in the machine. Even so, it would still hold a lot of fragmentation into the market -- something that is not good for games. (This is another reason why it won't happen, such an extreme jump would leave everyone from the year prior completely uncapable of running the new applications)
To end: No, it's not happening.
2. Technology improves every day indeed. That doesn't mean, all services improve. I think you underestimate the costs to improve servers / bandwith. OnLive has certainly become large, but what you're suggesting won't happen. It assumes that as soon as technology improves, then providers switch within a decent amount of time period. This is proven false, by looking at American internet providers. For eample, TimeWarner charges people about $50 a month for a 10mbps down/ 1mbs upload -- this has been the same for over 5 years. They've recently come out with a plan for about $99, that triples or quadrouples that. That connection would be necessary to play OnLive currently, with no lag and full 720P(Assuming OnLive's servers could even output that -- which they can't.)
Do you instantly get a new connection when a better service is provided? Have you expierenced the major issues that plague OnLive? Would someone really want to pay a monthly subscription ON TOP of a large internet bill, just to afford to be able to do cloud gaming. (Not to mention on mobile devices, an even larger input delay with devices not having the same internet connection speed as desktops.)
3. I'll agree with all that, except for Gaming.
