| hollabackenny said: I think a huge point you're missing the that COD has become a huge social game. So, going by your earlier logic, if 100,000 less people have preorder BLOP2 it's probably because they're (PROBABLY) holding out for the Wii U version, correct? So now one 1 out of 10 people are switching consoles to play Cod, while 9 out of 10 are sticking with their ps3 or 360. This is why I believe Cod on Xbox and Ps3 will still outsell Wii U. People play Cod and play with their friends. Sure maybe a few people in your circle of friends an afford a Wii U right away but are they gonna buy a game to play with 2 of their friends or get it for a system they can play with 10+ friends? But at the same time, I can see their being an appeal to the Wii Pad. I just don't think it's big enough to steal the ps360 fanbase |
Preorders 4 months before release are not indicative of the sales patterns between the consoles. Those who preorder this early are either technophiles or very active gamers (basically, people who spend a lot of time on the internet talking about games). The majority of people who will buy the game will do so without a preorder, and the vast majority will not have a preorder this early.
To give you a stronger sense of my point, consider that MW3, in the week before release in the US, had 2.447 million preorders on Xbox 360 and 1.166 million preorders on PS3. First-week sales on 360 was 4.275 million, and on PS3 it was 2.293 million. The games have now sold 8.8 million and 5.2 million, respectively (Americas sales). Most of all, though, preorders at this point last year were 410,000 and 194,000, respectively. Let me put that into stronger perspective - less than 20% of all preorders on each system were made this early, and less than 5% of total sales on each system.
And I don't think that the Wii U is going to steal massive numbers from 360 or PS3. I think it's more likely to capture people who otherwise wouldn't have owned their own copy of the game, and a smaller portion of 360 and PS3 owners will make the switch (assuming the Wii U version is good enough), with a large proportion of those being amongst those that preorder this early (the technophiles, who are likely to get a Wii U anyway).
It is possible for the Wii U version to do more than this, but it requires the game to be exceptional - it needs to have features and factors that make it clearly and undoubtedly the definitive version. And even in that situation, I still only expect maybe 8 million for the Wii U version, compared with 26 million that bought MW3. Let me reemphasise this by pointing out that, even if all 8 million would otherwise have bought the 360 or PS3 versions, that would still be only around 30% of those that would have bought one of the other versions switching to Wii U.
