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I'd pay for online, just because I want to support Sony (and it might make the online a little more stable.

I don't think they will start charging for online, though. Just colloquially, I know a lot of people who made the switch because they were tired of paying for XBL with adverts.

Also, I think Sony have used too much of a marketing push for 'free' online play to make the switch any time soon. They also 'acquire' exclusives like Dust 514 because of their free online, which is a slight bonus.