binary solo said:
While this is more likely than 720>Wii U + PS4, I think a 60:40 split is also unlikely. My feeling (in fact my hope) is that none of the consoles are dominant next gen. Stiff competition among consoles is the best thing, and that means fairly even sales across all 3. I hope all 3 consoles take between 28% and 35% market share on an approx. 250 million unit global market. Fact is despite MS having lots of money brand Xbox is not a major source of profits for MS. This means there's not much business justification for throwing tons of money at promoting Xbox other than making it a sustainable brand in console gaming. It's worth investing a decent amount in promotion to keep Xbox growing but they aren't going to outspend Sony or Ninty by orders of magnitude. They might outspend $2:$1, but not $10:$1 it's simply not justifiable to do so, and to achieve 720>PS4+WiiU would require something like a $10:$1 spend I would think. There's no compelling reason for people to move from PS / Wii to Xbox, so that means MS having to spend lots of money convincing people to do so. I do know people who bought a 360 who would rather have bought a PS3 if the PS3 was at a comparable price at launch, but the up front price difference at the time was compelling enough for them to buy against their preference. I don't know anyone who bought a PS3 but would rather have bought a 360. That tells me, anecdotally, that by and large people who've bought PS3 are hihgly likely to buy a PS4, but depending on timing and launch price there's a proportion of people who bought 360 who are likely to by PS4, or who are at least 50/50 on which way they will go. I don't have a good sense of where early Wii buyers are going to go. Did many end up buying a 360 after a few years? I know a few people who bought a Wii then followed up with 360 (and Kinect), and I know one or two who went Wii --> PS3. Maybe there has been a bit of the old Michael Pachter "HD upgrading" going on in the last 2 years. It seems from sales patterns if there has been HD upgrading going on PS3 has benefited as much as 360; albeit 360 benefitting more in the Americas / UK and PS3 benefiting more almost everywhere else. I do think Nintendo has lost some market share potential for Wii U, but if 360 has created an advantage for MS over PS/Sony in the HD upgraders segment of the market I don't think it's a huge or global advantage. |
See this is why it's anecdotal info, cause My cuz went form ps3 to xbox. Most of my friends did to and that was because most of us where on Xbox Live. I only knew Of a few that sold there PS3 as a result but the amount of play that xbox gets compared to there ps3 is shifted way in favor of there xbox. However I do know a person who went from xbox to ps3 cause of RROD and blu-ray. So I can say this is something different everywhere and hard to tell with out getting a really big poll from all over. So this can go in any direction. Plus I bet you $10,000 of Mitt Romney's money that they will charge for PSN next gen. They have lost way to much money. Playstation Plus I think was a way to ease it in. So many Sony fans have pride in the free online that they needed some sort of marketing or strategy to move from free to a pay system.
