Prediction: The Xbox 720(?) will sell more than the PS4 and the Wii U combined

[binary solo]

Pesmerga7551 said:

Icy-Zone said:
I have a feeling Sony will be number 1 next generation. I would say Sony beat microsoft this video game generation because they are currently juggling 3 pieces of hardware, PS3, PSP, and PS Vita. I was one that switched from Xbox because I felt like I was being hustled for online play and I'm sure others will follow suit, sooner or later. Nintendo, I feel, is releasing the WiiU a little too early. I'm interested to see how well they do.

Sony won this generation and its sales will reflect shorly. The 360 hasn't been outselling the PS3 really ever. Year after year, the PS3 sells more units. With mistakes corrected, their is no chance that the 720 will sell more than both combined. None. Zero. Zip. The PS4 however is much more likely to sell more units than the 720 next generation. Between the next-gen HD consoles, I think the PS4 and 720 split will be 60-40 in favor of Sony's PlayStation 4 (minimum).

While this is more likely than 720>Wii U + PS4, I think a 60:40 split is also unlikely. My feeling (in fact my hope) is that none of the consoles are dominant next gen. Stiff competition among consoles is the best thing, and that means fairly even sales across all 3. I hope all 3 consoles take between 28% and 35% market share on an approx. 250 million unit global market.

Fact is despite MS having lots of money brand Xbox is not a major source of profits for MS. This means there's not much business justification for throwing tons of money at promoting Xbox other than making it a sustainable brand in console gaming. It's worth investing a decent amount in promotion to keep Xbox growing but they aren't going to outspend Sony or Ninty by orders of magnitude. They might outspend $2:$1, but not $10:$1 it's simply not justifiable to do so, and to achieve 720>PS4+WiiU would require something like a $10:$1 spend I would think. There's no compelling reason for people to move from PS / Wii to Xbox, so that means MS having to spend lots of money convincing people to do so.

I do know people who bought a 360 who would rather have bought a PS3 if the PS3 was at a comparable price at launch, but the up front price difference at the time was compelling enough for them to buy against their preference. I don't know anyone who bought a PS3 but would rather have bought a 360. That tells me, anecdotally, that by and large people who've bought PS3 are hihgly likely to buy a PS4, but depending on timing and launch price there's a proportion of people who bought 360 who are likely to by PS4, or who are at least 50/50 on which way they will go.

I don't have a good sense of where early Wii buyers are going to go. Did many end up buying a 360 after a few years? I know a few people who bought a Wii then followed up with 360 (and Kinect), and I know one or two who went Wii --> PS3. Maybe there has been a bit of the old Michael Pachter "HD upgrading" going on in the last 2 years. It seems from sales patterns if there has been HD upgrading going on PS3 has benefited as much as 360; albeit 360 benefitting more in the Americas / UK and PS3 benefiting more almost everywhere else. I do think Nintendo has lost some market share potential for Wii U, but if 360 has created an advantage for MS over PS/Sony in the HD upgraders segment of the market I don't think it's a huge or global advantage.