Good question. The Vita has potential and there are some good games like Gravity Rush, Wipeout and Uncharted out already. I guess Golden Abyss doesn't count as "THE game" so I'll say it'll come whenever Sony puts some more first party games out. A true God of War game or even better a proper Gran Turismo on the go should suffice. Will we see a Monster Hunter-like phenomenon? Who knows!
As for first party games: I want Sony to announce stuff soon. Where's the next Patapon, God of War, Ratchet and Clank,...? The PSP had lots of actual "handheld" style games, crazy but neat stuff that really made it a cool handheld console. The Vita still needs those games and I hope Sony has a lot of games in development right now. In the future there'll also be a PS4 to support so now is the time to focus on Vita.
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