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endimion on 22 June 2012
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greenmedic88 said:
endimion said:

first stock market value has nothing to do with the size and strength of a company it is merely a representation of what the mass of investors think the company should sell for.... MS has been up there for 3 decades almost.. it's no surprise that 70% of the MS investors are the like of goldman and sachs jp morgan etc... with a p/e at 11 and a track record of being relatively stable msft is to software and electronic market what cocacola is to the soda one.... apple is at best a trend to cash on for short term investment right now... and seriously overstated at that... bottom line even if today it might be more interesting to put money on apple the risk is higher on long term investment than with MS

now about the bold part.... you do realize that the consumer market is peanuts compare to those sectors..... close to a billion computer in service today run on an MS OS.... more than 100 million of pc running windows are sold every year... they still control 80% of the OS market.... 50% of the server market.... for exemple it took less than 18 months for win7 to take over OS X total install base...

to that they have military contracts, they have public sector /gsa contracts, automobile industry contracts etc etc that apple is not gonna touch for decades.... so yes i'll say it again ipad iphone and even mbp or air consumer market is peanuts compare to what MS is covering.... and you'll never replace a fully fledged pc with a ipad at least not in its current form.... we'll see in 10 15 years until then ms has a lot if sunny days in front of them....

I think whatever misplaced love you have for MS has clouded your thinking. 

In a nutshell you believe Apple is overvalued making it a short term investment despite two most recent years to the contrary and that Microsoft is where the growth is at. Or maybe you're saying it's the safe place to invest with little upside for growth. MS is essentially the JNJ of tech. Very little play involved, stable but virtually without surprises in terms of market performance. More like a mutual fund than a growth stock. 

10-15 years? Try as we are debating this, it's currently happening. Why else is Microsoft even bothering with Surface otherwise? Why was Windows 8 so clearly tailored for compatibility with tablet PCs? Do you think Surface is just some sort of vaporware hobby project to keep investors interested or placated? 

Only those who are vehemently opposed to the proliferation of tablet PCs could ignore their increasing use in the workplace. As as they continue to grow in functionality and power, it is the traditional desktop space in which MS has its greatest strengths that will continue to shrink.

i do not love MS i despise apple... and do not believe in their long term strength (meaning 20 years and over) 2 years in the stock market is nothing anything under 15 years is pretty much short term

never said growth was in ms i was saying the safer investment is ms... you're mixing up long term and short term investment and also financial stability and economical growth.... plus we are comparing a major software company with a harware/soft mix aimed mainly at the consumer market.... if you put it in prospective ms with software is generating almost as much revenue than apple is, selling hardware (of course it's simplified image) and still makes more money on the dollar than apple...

i'll say it today apple willl never control the market globally... they technically can't replace the production of all the pc constructor out there and it is not in any actors of the sector best interest.... and they'll get anti trust law suites like ms in the 90s.... to me google is more dangerous for ms than apple...

and yes i do believe tablets is a booming market like smartphones and ms is behind.... but the day were a real shift in the workplace between desktop and lsptops to tablets is decades away... the tablet market of today is comparable to the blu ray versus dvd... there is nothing serious from android or apple that can seriously sustain network infrastructure company require today... i'm not talking about the 50 desk office but major corporation... the day you'll see more tablets in cubicals than desktops is far far away.... they are barely upgrading to win7....

iPad trend and iPhone will pass unless they put something really new out... they lead now because they are pretty much alone.... it already shows on the smartphone side that if you have enough competition they fall behind the one with the most oem (android) so far you are right ms is beat 10 times over on those 2 sector... but i doubt it'll last and if does i still think google is the one to worry about.... as soon as you'll have real competition and the novelty effect will fade away in the consumer minds they won't stick with the most expensive... especially the corporate world... they'll take the most cost to productivity/compatibility efficient any day.... i have yet to see companies beside some really specific sectors (architecs, recording studios, etc) running on a 100% mac infrastructure... i don't know if you tried to have mac servers before but it makes the blue screen of death look like a walk in the park....

so far you have linux and ms largely dominating the server side and ms is still stomping everybody else when it comes to workstation in most work environement and that is nowhere close to change... there isn't a serrious IT guy that can honnestly recommand to switch a professional infrastructure to ipads or android tablets or even macs seriously and say it's the best option for the company... i'd fire the guy in a heart beat.... and that is not love for ms but a hardfact.... so unless they do a windows vista fiasco again with win8 and/or android take off as a coherant ecosystem(and that would require a serious boost in the coherance of the oems pushing the OS, cause android ecosystem is big messy pile of shit right now... meaning when they'll be all running the exact same version/distribution) the trend of ms being a leader in install base is not changing... and once again if it does it will be more than likely in android/google favor way before apple...

but i agree apple right now is a big disturbance in the force... but will it hold in the face of the other actors i doubt it.... the change of leadership and corporate philosphy after jobs death could also temper with their success in the future... in any case nobody can really know what the future holds for us... at least 10 years is needed if not way more...