Today I had an epiphany about the Playstation platform. One that I suspect may be the crux of many a debate months and years from now. Specifically we have two products, but Sony may only be able to keep one due to financial constraints. Like two stars forming in a binary solar system one may so deplete the available resources that there isn't enough left for the other to ignite, and burn like a true star. This analogy may very likely come to pass, because of some things that are happening right now, and what Sony has said its plans for the future are. Namely the Vita isn't doing too hot on the sales front, but Sony intends to sell ten million units in this fiscal year. Which means they will need to produce at least that many units.
The problem is as I see it Sony is on track to make far more units then they can sell in that time frame. If the sales trend continues, and Sony does nothing to really arrest that trend. Sony could have warehouses full of millions of unsold units. Sony could end up locking up much of their liquidity into unsold hardware. What I am talking about is billions of dollars. Money that needs to be spent on pushing the PS4 out the door. Which cannot be accessed, because it is locked in Vitas that are not getting sold. Sure at that point Sony could choose to go with a price cut to move units, or it could have engineered one sooner to keep pace with their very ambitious manufacturing plans.
However that is another problem altogether. Can Sony afford to launch a new console. When the division itself is actively losing money on another product. Will Sony have the will, or would investors have the tolerance to be eating both losses on the Vita, and on launching a new console. Especially when the whole company is doing poorly. I suppose what I am saying is that for the PS4 to have a chance to come to the market it may be entirely dependant on the Vita being able to succeed without priceing relief coming from Sony. If the Vita cannot manage then the resources it may well devour to stay on the market may starve the PS4 to death.
It could lock up so much money in hardware that Sony couldn't afford to launch a PS4, or at best may have to wait an additional year. On the other hand Sony could invest so much into the Vita that there is nothing left for the PS4 to launch. This all before you go into the real nightmare scenarios. Where the Vita just fails out of the market being utterly unsalvageable. Which may just kill off consumer confidence so much that the market wouldn't tolerate another platform out of Sony. Making a PS4 entirely unviable.
It really looks like the Vita could be the toughest competition for the PS4. I can easily see Sony planning to have three billion dollars to spend on launching the PS4. Only to find out that the money they thought they would have wasn't actually going to be there. Since it is locked up in stock, or they had to blow a huge chunk of it keeping the Vita afloat. By the way before anyone jumps down my throat about this being all baseless speculation. This is part of why Sony had to cut the price of the PS3 twice in its first year on the market. Sony was producing far more units then were actually getting sold.
Anyway I think it is a possible future. I really wanted to stake my claim before it popped into someone elses head. That Sony might manufacture themselves into a hole they couldn't get out of intact. I am interested as to what everyone else thinks about this line of thought. Am I barking up the wrong tree, or have I caught the scent.
