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...in a vacuum. These points have to be relevant against the competition.

Microsoft was willing to lose ~$150 per 360 at launch. This time they'll be buoyed by 20 million live subscribers. They could very well do the same and only have their marketing costs to cover.

I don't know if the analysts are over dramatising and exaggerating Sony's financial woes in recent times, but it does read like they're in a precarious position heading into next gen. Their capacity to continue with their loss leading 'razor-blade' pricing strategy is a concern, let alone indulge in a huge marketing campaign.