Nintendo just shot themselves in the foot for next gen, repeat of Wii all over again

[killeryoshis]

thismeintiel said:

killeryoshis said:
Last time gilgamesh made a prediction (3ds vs Vita) it went terribly wrong. So I am coming at this with a opposite view.

I believe Nintendo actually did a good job on the hardware and will attract lots of 3rd party support. I believe it is Sony and Microsoft that shot themselves on the foot. They now allowed Nintendo to have a head start. History shows that head starts are very deadly and even led to domination in some generations. If wii u does come dead on arrival it will have time to pick up and if it does oh my the competition is screwed!

Since the gaming crash of '83 and gaming's "rebirth", the only system to launch first and be the market leader was the NES.

4th Gen

Genesis - ~40M (released Oct '88)

SNES - 49.1M (released Nov '90)

5th Gen

Saturn - 9.5M (released Nov '94)

PS1 - 102.49M (released Dec '94)

6th Gen

Dreamcast - 10.6M (released Nov '98)

PS2 - 154.4M (released Mar '00)

7th Gen

360 - 67.2M (released Nov '05)

Wii - 95.85M (released Nov '06)

 

An interesting thing to note is that the person who launches 2nd, since the NES, is the one who has won the gen.  If rumors prove true, Sony is planning to launch 2nd next gen.  I wonder if history will repeat itself.  Well, technically the PS3 launched 2nd this gen, but since the Wii launched just a few days after I'd consider them both launching 2nd.

I can see what you mean. But read what I said in bold. Being first to launch doesn't gurentee  selling the best but rather gives a big advantage. 2nd when I meant headstart I meant more Genesis vs SNES,   Ps1 vs N64,   PS2 vs GC/Xbox    360 vs Ps3.

I discard Saturn and Dreamcast mostly because while they were first they did launch too early (saturn launched before any major software was ready.) Dreamcast was relased in Japan 2 years AFTER the N64 relased.

Launching first was only bad for the dreamcast and saturn did well enough unless they were not the big 4. (srry Atari and 3DO)

3 Examples of headstarts used well

Genesis vs SNES. In america (the place where the SNES lost the most marketshare) Genesis had a  2 year headstart. This led Nintendo from dominating the hardware race to having a hard time winning.

 PS1 vs N64. PS1 had a 1.5 year headstart over the N64. The PS1 started slow but built up with more 3rd parties and by the time N64 came out it was at a disadvantage.

360 vs PS3. 360 is only in 2nd place due to the headstart. Sure it didn't beat wii but Microsoft was aiming their guns at Sony. For them wii was a unexpected hit. but  the headstart  did give microsoft a advantage against its main competitor the PS3

Wii U could use its headstart to gain 3rd party support and gain momentum. It really has a big advantage. This is also the Second time Nintendo launched first since the NES on the home console field. We all know how that turned out.