I wouldn't be surprised by a 5 year life cycle.
I think if the PS3 overtakes the 360, it's replacement will be moved up; if the 360 stays ahead, they'd want to leave this generation a while longer to run.
It could be a real pain for sony if just as they finally get the PS3 profitable, microsoft then releases a significantly more powerful console. Screwing over sony is as big a motivation for microsoft as making a profit is.
They don't want to risk a dominant playstation taking the PC's place for domestic multimedia purposes.