An interesting study into Android and iOS

[rocketpig]

okr said:
"...fragmentation is going to kill Android unless Google does something about it."

I don't think so. I think most SP owners download a lot of free apps and few pay apps, keep the most useful and most fun ones and remove the other ones. I just saw some recent statistics which said that the average time people spent on smartphone gaming is already on a decline (and I bet it will decline even more), while the average time spent on social networking is increasing quickly. I think most Android users don't and won't care about the OS version of their device as long as they can play Angry Birds and one or two other games from time to time and as long as they can use Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn like on any other phones. Fragmentation won't kill Android, Android won't kill iOS.

When I say "kill" Android, I don't mean an actual death of the OS. I think this fragmentation allows for another company to step in with a better OS, better updating system, and make in-roads. That company?

Microsoft. If MS plays this correctly, WP can make big gains in the coming years. First, they have the best UI on the market. Second, they're Microsoft. Developers love Redmond because they're so good at setting up a support network. Third, they know what pitfalls to avoid while making an OS, such as "don't let others skin your OS". Users get used to how an OS works. You want customers to be familiar with your OS so that when they walk into a store to buy a new device, yours has an advantage. They can pick it up and use it in seconds. I will never understand why Google has failed to "get" this incredibly simple concept. Skinning an OS is just about the worst idea an OS manufacturer can come up with. Fourth, all updates must be handled by the OS manufacturer. This is obvious. I have an Android phone that could easily run ICS. It'd be great to have the OS because right now, my phone is buggy as hell. But it won't get it. The phone was a little under a year old when ICS released and it won't get the update. Why? Because HTC doesn't feel like it. Well, guess what, Google? I don't "feel like" buying another Android phone again. If you got off your ass and handled your own update schedule, I probably wouldn't be switching platforms again in the coming months.

I agree that many people won't care about what OS their phone is using... but many will care. Many already do; after all, look at the continued success of iPhone. One line of phones still controls ~25% of the market. Why? Because its closed system just works better than other phones on the market. Microsoft will bring a nice complementary OS to the market. It's not as closed as Apple's offering but they'll still control important aspects such as updates and the best UI interface on the market.

Over the next few years, I see Apple seeing a slight dip in market share while Google takes a relatively big hit in market share. Both will be lost to WP as Microsoft gains ground. Will they ever see market dominance? I doubt it but I think they'll probably catch up to at least Apple someday. Their system is just better. It combines the best of both the Apple and Android worlds to make a phone. People will buy that.

I'll probably be returning to iPhone this August when I renew my phone but that's mainly because I don't think WP7 is *quite* ready for prime time, at least not for me. But by the time my next phone contract is up, it wouldn't surprise me at all if I ended up with a WP. If I was forced into buying a phone *today*, I'd probably pick up a Lumia.

HUGE EDIT: I see that recently, MS changed their policy to let carriers dictate update schedules. WHY, MICROSOFT? WHY? Huge mistake. That puts the rest of my post in doubt.