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A significant percentage of core gamers will by a HD console and eventually pick up a wii as well.
An overwhelming percentage of casual gamers will buy a wii and nothing else.
HD consoles lose.

I bought my 360 first. After finding my wii i've hardly touched my 360. I'll consider a ps3 (for ratchet and LBP) when the price of blu-ray media drops to below $20 a disc otherwise i'll stick with upconverted dvd.

My parents are looking for a wii. They won't even consider a ps3 or 360.