The Wii's Magic Number -

[Fastrabbit09]

as of now, ps360 has sold 26.3million consoles

per my sig, wii should surpass 31million consoles by 7/31/08, or 27 weeks from now

so ps360 has to average 174,074/week combined between now and then in order to keep wii from having a 50% market share at that time (really a bit more since wii should be over 31mil, not exactly at 31 mil)

they should have no problem doing that, seeing as how this week they are at 239k without japan numbers


what gets more interesting is october 31st numbers

at that point wii should be around 38million, or 11.7million higher than ps360 is now

that's 40 weeks away, so they'd need to average 292,500/week to not lose the majority of the market by that point

so as long as Nintendo ups production around May to 2.x/month, then Wii should have >50% market share sometime between August and October.

for determining if Wii will end the year at >50%, then take 45million Wiis - 26.3million ps360s and we get 18.7million

so if ps360 can sell 18.7million this year, then Wii won't end the year at >50% unless Nintendo is more aggressive in upping production and gets into the 50 million range

but in 2009, the post-holiday sales go back down for 360/ps3 and wii continues selling 2mil+/month once the supply chain gets back to normal, so wii will again reach >50% in january and never look back


at that point, sales in ps360 may actually decline in 2009/2010 when devs shift most resources over to wii (larger userbase + cheaper cost = more $$$$) and that's where u get ps360 in a xcube situation and they only sell about 80mil consoles combined before their next generation releases while wii sells 150mil+