There has been a lot of discussion about the 3DS and its inevitable remodel; recently the stars have aligned and I can see clearly that the remodel will likely be released in Japan (and probably worldwide) before the end of this year. I'll discuss how I came to this conclusion later, but for now I want to talk about what this remodel will entail -- and why it would be a good move.
Naturally, there may be some relatively insignificant differences to the button layout, menu design, cameras, size, and shape of the console, but I only want to address the major changes. The remodel -- henceforth the 3DS Pro -- will have two slide pads, four shoulder buttons, and a significantly longer battery life. That is all. Though the screens may see miniscule changes and the console may be expanded to accomodate the larger battery and extra buttons, neither will be significantly larger. Larger screens would cause the battery to drain more quickly and the graphics to look slightly blurred, as with the DSi XL. Both of these would be counter-productive to the purpose of the 3DS Pro.
As you can see, the 3DS Pro doesn't have anything that can't be added to the current 3DS with a peripheral. If you already own a 3DS, it will not become "obsolete" when the Pro is released; your console will still support all software released for the system.
Furthermore, the original 3DS will still be manufactured, shipped, and advertised by Nintendo. Its target demographic will shift; it will be marketed alongside and bundled with games like Brain Age, New Super Mario Bros., and Animal Crossing. The Pro will be marketed alongside and bundled with more "core" games that would make use of its added functionality; we have already seen this in games like Monster Hunter 3G and Resident Evil: Revelations thanks to the Circle Pad Pro.
The idea is that "casual" gamers can opt for the less expensive original model if they feel they don't need the bells and whistles added to the Pro; "core" gamers who already own a 3DS can trade their model in for the new one or buy a Circle Pad Pro; and "core" gamers who don't already own a 3DS will be more drawn to the Pro model. Developers don't have to worry about developing for both models -- if they design a game with dual analog in mind, they simply clarify on the box that the game requires the Circle Pad Pro or the 3DS Pro to play. Their target demographic will likely already have one of these.
Finally -- how did I come to the conclusion that the 3DS Pro will be released this year, and not next year? After all, the 3DS was just released last year. Even the DS (2004) and the DS Lite (2006) had two years between them.
Except that's not exactly true.
The DS was released in Japan December 2, 2004. The DS Lite was revealed in Japan January 26, 2006, and released in Japan about 35 days later on March 2. A little math, and... the Japanese launch of the DS Lite was exactly 15 months after that of the original DS. To put that into perspective, the 15-month anniversary of the 3DS in Japan is... May 26, 2012. Last Saturday. If Nintendo had followed the DS's release schedule with the 3DS, the 3DS Pro would already be out.
It's a bit different for America -- the original DS launched a couple of weeks earlier there than in Japan, while the Lite launched later. In the end, there were not quite 19 months between the DS and Lite launches in America. The not-quite-19-month anniversary of the 3DS in America takes place this October. Of course, none of this proves that the 3DS will follow suit -- but it proves that Nintendo would have no qualms about redesigning their new console so soon after its launch.
Many of you have probably heard the theories connecting the DSi & XL price drop and the Amazon 3DS shortage in Japan to an upcoming new model. I don't exactly consider this compelling evidence that the Pro is coming, but it is intriguing and supports that possibility.
The true proof -- what really seals it for me -- is the software. Third-party developers aren't just supporting the 3DS -- they're supporting it with 3D games. Nintendo may have revolutionized control in 3D games with the analog stick, but Sony perfected it by doubling the formula. Developers like having dual analog controls. They feel much more comfortable designing games around dual analog than around an alternative control method, such as the one used in Kid Icarus: Uprising.
Nintendo might never have another opportunity like this. What better game to push new hardware in Japan than Monster Hunter 4, repeatedly confirmed for a 2012 Japanese release? What of Konami and their 3DS Castlevania game -- supposedly it will have both 2D and 3D sections. Surely the 3D sections will support dual analog. Surely Nintendo wants to have a dual analog console on the market for these games at release.
I'm not saying 3DS Pro in 2012 is a certainty. But it definitely isn't out of the question to see an E3 reveal, a mid-July Japanese release, and a September worldwide release.
~ Post-E3 Update ~
Obviously, 3DS Pro was not revealed at E3. This pretty much cements that it will not launch in 2012... in the West. However, I still believe Monster Hunter 4 will be used to push new hardware. My original prediction was that the 3DS Pro would "be released in Japan (and probably worldwide) before the end of this year." My revised prediction is more specific: the 3DS Pro will be revealed in September or October (TGS is a great candidate for the announcement), released in Japan in October or November 2012, and will NOT be released in any other territories until 2013.
