I'm expecting a moderate jump. Current gen consoles play BF3 on low at 720p & 30fps. Next gen I think we'll get med-high at 1080p & 30fps (high) or 60fps (med), for launch games. So it's a fairly big jump, not spectacular, but comparable to PS2-PS3. There is certainly room for improvement, and it's not that hard to achieve, even a $250 console would produce a very noticeable jump, a $400 console would show us a massive jump.
I think the best improvements will be every game looking "clean" and running smoothly as you said, we'll have higher resolutions, better AA, 60fps or 30fps+motion blur as the standard. Personally this is very important, shaky frame-rates and aliasing are 2 things that really pull me out of a game. Bad company 2 for example, could be a brilliant looking game, but the lack of AA on consoles completely ruins the visuals for me.
I think there will be less AAA games around with more devs focusing on smaller, downloadable titles, so we'll have less jaw-dropping photo-realistic visuals.
To answer the question in the poll, I think the worst looking games will look like Uncharted 3 at 1080p, and the best will look like Metro: Last light maxed out or better.
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