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Difficult too say, I agree with the OP's view about COD, GT, GTA, etc.
As I said in another thread, Vita needs something new, as LocoRoco or Patapon were for PSP, even though they weren't big system sellers they brought something fresh to the table.
Just a few people want to play big games on the go, the real handled market is different, and the rise of smartphones and tablets doesn't help Sony.