ALL marioboys bought SMG and Wii? Or speculations made on SMG and SMS sales

[Srilumpa]

Do you know the saying "coincidence does not imply correlation". If SMG had be released last year at launch it would have sold less so far (less Wiis around) but still very well and you probably would have been saying "Wii only sells to hardcore Nintendo/Mario fans". Have it release next year and it would have sold even better (more Wiis around) but with a lower attach rate (more diverse Wii userbase due to bigger size) and you wouldn't be able to say what you are saying. The only reason you can spuriously claim that is due to the coincidence of SMG's release being close to the Wii's sales approaching the levels of the GC sales.

SMG is a better game than SMS on a better selling console so it is no surprise to have it reach SMS LTD levels of sales faster. But using this and the coincidence of the Wii sales being close to the GC sales (which is only due to supply constraints BTW or it would already have overtaken it) to come to the conclusion that most Wii owners were GC owners is really bad logic (as in no logic at all).

If all those former GC owners bought Wiis so fast why didn't they buy the GC so fast too and make it a tremendous success like the Wii? Why would they have changed their purchasing behavior in the past 5 years?

Also, if I understand you well Crazzyman, you believe that everybody that bought SMS is a "Marioboy", even those that bought it more than 6 months after release (can't be much of a fan[atic] if he waited that long to get it) and no non-Marioboy bought it.

So if all these marioboys took so long to buy all these copies of SMS last time why do they suddenly decide to buy all these copy of SMG so close to launch, according to you?

Isn't it more logical (yeah, that word again) to assume that Mario fans bought the game near its launch along with some "I like Mario but am not a fan" types of guys while more of the latter bought it over time and that the exact same is happening here with SMG but the difference in selling speed is due to the Wii having a bigger success a thus there are more of the latter kind of buyers buying it along with the Mario fans and due to the Wii's ongoing success there will be more of them going on (but of course slowing as the game gets older and 2nd hand versions appear).

Using this tells us that SMG should be doing better than SMS at a similar timeframe (barring holiday seasons skewing things one way or another) which is definitely the case in Japan and europe (as it outsold the LTD of SMS) and probably is the case in America though the graph doesn't seem to have SMS's American numbers. It also tells usthat SMG should do much better numbers than SMS which is pretty much a given as it is not far behind SMS in only 12 weeks and many Nintendo games on the Wii released almost a year ago have sold better than the LTD of their counterpart on the GC. In 6 months to 1 year we should see SMG outselling SMS in the US too as more Wiis are released there.