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Cartridges will never be cheaper then discs. If we still get hvd before everything goes digital only it's more likely we'll see smaller discs again like the game cube used. However it's far more likely we'll get online only consoles. Maybe next gen already with a separate sku with an optical drive. Hdds will be replaced by ssd drives, but not yet next gen. (hopefully optional like the ps3)

For now blu-ray is here to stay. There's still plenty of room to play with and so far we've only had a x2 drive in the ps3. The 360 has a x12 dvd drive, a x12 blu-ray drive will reduce those install times dramatically. Most games are probably going to run of the hdd next gen with only the movie assets directly streamed from disk.