I agree with Patcher.
Casuals don't see the need to buy a new console every 6 years.
We must think about the Wii, that I think it's a clear example of the casual-wave. The Wii got an amazing start, thanks to it's incredible, and totally new, motion control capabilities, but after a few years, nobody was so interested in it, and there was a big decline in sales.
Talking about Kinect I think it is a success, and a big one, as I already said in another thread, but it's going to be temporary. Casuals won't buy the next xbox just for improved Kinect features, they will need something more.
So, "normal people" are not so used and "prepared" to jump to a new generation, and to this we have to add all the new smartphones and tablets. You could think that they aren't influencing the videogame market, but it's not. Right now parents buy to their sons Ipods, etc, that are becoming new mp3 players/handled consoles.
Edit: 100th post! :)
