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daveJ said:
Pineapple said:

You're making a  pretty rubbish bet here. Consider that NSMB2 is going to sell for years, so the Vita games will have to sell >35 million

news flash, Outside of Japan the 3ds is bombing baddly, granted not as bad as the vita though. Latest NPD numbers is 3ds = 125k.

the 6-7 year old consoles xbox360 & ps3 are kicking its butt in sales

You think it will sell 35million, mate youure dreaming, its not the ds. The handheld landscape has changed significantly, the rise of the smartphone has destroyed the handheld console market.

the 3ds is also sold at a loss, according to nintendo thus it will be a long time before it sees a pricecut.

I think my sig is very safe :)

You're missing my point here. The chanes of NSMB 2 selling 35 million are virtually unexistant. The problem is, there are several factors that could lead to it getting close to that number late in its life, such as for instance the game being bundled.

Your other points are also a bit different from what I'd expect, and they have a completely different view of the world than I do, so it's a bit hard to comment against. You're making some quite quick assumptions, and some that are faulty/incredible overstatements. The 3DS isn't selling very poorly outside of Japan. Kowenchiki's brilliant graphs illustrate this rather well.