SamuelRSmith on 06 May 2012
| TadpoleJackson said: This is all well and good, but Paul still needs to stop Romney from getting the 1044(?) he needs in order to seize the candidacy. Otherwise, Paul's strategy is more or less useless. He stood a chance with Gingrich and Santorum in the race, now that they are gone, it's more or less over for Paul |
Current predictions, according to GOP unbound, put Romney at dead on 1,144 delegates in the first round, with Paul at 529. Romney's count has dropped 14 in the past 24 hours, Paul's has gone up 41.
A couple more upset wins, and Romney loses the first round majority.
Delegates bound to Romney in the first vote can abstain, if they're Paul supporters (as will be the case with Massachusetts delegates, for example).
Gingrich/Santorum delegates are still bound, as they have only suspended their campaign. Santorum has implicitly supported Paul since dropping out, meaning that if he officially terminated his campaign, those delegates are likelier to move to Paul than Romney.
EDIT: Majority is 1,144.
