Was the Kinect a success gaming-wise?

[JWeinCom]

Is it accurate to call the Kinect a success saleswise?

Despite its incredibly hot start, the Kinect has slowed down considerably. I believe it sold about 8 million in the first six weeks, and then sold about another 8 million in the 70 weeks since then. Much of these sales came around the holiday season last year, where the device and the console bundles were heavily discounted by many retailers. Throughout the holiday season, many retailers were offering 100 dollar gift cards with a Kinect Bundle, and the Kinect itself for 100. Presumably, Microsoft was giving vendors a kickback.

Kinect software hasn't been moving too well. Neither Kinect Sports 2 nor Dance Central 2 have matched up to the sales of their predecessor. Aside from those two games and just dance 3, sales have been dismal for pretty much all games, with the possible exception of Kinect Star Wars.

As a peripheral, you'd have to consider the Kinect a success, but the problems come when you take a few factors into consideration.

Firstly, Microsoft spent a ton of money advertising the Kinect. The Kinect reportedly had a 500 million dollar advertising budget at launch. That's a big number more in line with the launch of a console than a peripheral.

Secondly, you have to figure in opportunity cost. What games would Microsoft have made if they weren't busy making Kinect games? Rare has done nothing but Wii Sports, Lionhead Studios is being occupied with Fable: The Journey. In the meantime, Epic Games, and Bungie have left Microsoft's fold. Microsoft's exclusive lineup for the coming year (Halo 4 and ummmmm...) is looking pretty thin, and Sony continues to gain on Microsoft in worldwide sales.

So, while the Kinect almost certainly has been profitable, has it been more profitable than the alternative of using those resources to make more games for MS's traditional audience? I don't think it has been.