Prediction for 360 price drop.

[superchunk]

OP is a bit off and way too much of a discount.

Forgetting my bet below and considering that 360's successor will be out Q4 of 2013 and that $99 is typically the bottom price for home consoles for the last couple years of their life, I'd give the following prediction.

Current Prices:
4GB - $199
4GB w/ Kinect - $299
250GB - $299
250GB w/ Kinect - $399
Kinect - $149

Nintendo will likely announce Wii U's price/launch date sometime in September and probably about the same time or just before drop Wii's price to $99.

So, I'd expect MS to drop 360's pricing around September as well to attempt to overshadow Nintendo and create its own buzz. Also, when is Halo 4 launching? Maybe do a price cut around same time.

New Prices:
4GB - $149
4GB w/ Kinect - $219
250GB - $219
250GB w/ Kinect - $299
Kinect - $99

This will keep 360 in very good competition with Wii's lower price and an expected PS3 drop in price as well. It will still keep a solid price difference between the various skus and provide solid 1yr price point until its time to drop it down again in prep for neXtBox.

There is no reason for it to drop by so much as the OP suggests at this time. MS would simply be throwing a way solid profits at a time with R&D is still high as they finalize their next console.