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SvennoJ on 26 April 2012
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thranx said:
SvennoJ said:


http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php

Chief Economist of the IEA, said this in a frank interview in April 2011:

We think that the crude oil production has already peaked in 2006, but we expect oil to come from the natural gas liquids, the type of liquid we have through the production of gas, and also a bit from the oil sands. But in any case it will be very challenging to see an increase in the production to meet the growth in the demand, and as a result of that, one of the major conclusions we have from our recent work in the energy outlook is that the age of cheap oil is over.

Decline rates

Perhaps an even more more significant question than 'when will oil peak?' may be: What will be the future rate of decline of oil production? Some form of co-ordinated adaptation might be possible if the annual drop in available oil was no more severe than 1-2% a year. Whereas 10% or more would soon implode the global economy. The IEA predicts a long plateau and a very modest global decline rate. Most independent models project decline rates between 2-4%.

Natural gas peak

The effects of natural gas peak are relatively localized. This is due to the enormous economic and energetic expense of liquefying and transporting natural gas as a compressed liquid. Both European and North American natural gas production have likely already peaked, so these regions are facing the extra severity of a dual energy crisis.


Looking at that graph and your previous one it looks like all they did was move the decline in oil to 2012 on. With out actually prediting what will happen. The first graph shows us on declining oil fields finds from 2003 on (the first predicted year) and than this graph shows a decline in 2013(again the first predicted year) so it seems kind bogus to me. Or am i seeing it wrong?

edit: NVm I must of been confused, the graphs are about different things entirely.

This one would be the correct comparison with the 2002 one


The other graph shows production peaked in 2006, holding almost steady for now and then predicted to decline slowly.